Latest ZenithOptimedia UK ad forecasts revised downwards

09 Oct 2012  |  Stuart Corke 

ZenithOptimedia has downgraded its 2012 UK advertising forecast and consequently revised downwards its growth forecast slightly for 2013 and 2014.

The revised 2012 prediction (at current prices) is forecast to be a growth of 2.2%. If inflation is taken into account (constant prices) the forecast is negative at -0.2%.

ZenithOptimedia's previous forecasts this year predicted a 3.2% rise at Q1 and an upgraded 3.5% at the half year. However, continued economic instability remains an anchor on growth in marketing spend. The hope that there would be a resurgence in advertising spend around the Olympics doesn't seem to have materialised to the magnitude many were expecting or hoping for.

The change in forecast over the last quarter means a loss to the total advertising market for 2012 of £155 million. All media, other than the Internet have been revised downwards. The biggest changes compared to the previous forecast are to the two largest media behind online - newspapers and television. Newspaper advertising revenue has been revised downwards by £97 million and £48 million is attributable to television. The total advertising revenue forecast for 2012 is £2.4 billion for newspapers and £3.3 billion for television.

ZenithOptimedia now forecast that newspaper advertising will be down 5.8% for 2012 when three months ago they were predicting a 1.7% decline, mainly due to the decline in regional press advertising.

However, this latest set of data sees the regional press forecast to decline at 7% compared to the prediction of -4.6% 3 months ago.

The material difference between the two forecast periods rests with the predicted performance of the national newspaper sector. Three months ago ZenithOptimedia predicted that the nationals would see an uplift in 2012, albeit small (+0.1%).

But the agency stated that, "anecdotal evidence suggests that the Diamond Jubilee and Euro 2012 tournament didn't trigger the massive resurgence in adspend in print that many had forecast."

National newspapers are now forecast to decline by 4.4% - £59 million less advertising revenue than forecast in the summer. However, ZenithOptimedia recognise that the national press had a very good Olympics in terms of increased circulation and increased advertising revenues.

ZenithOptimedia now predict that Internet advertising will grow by 11% in 2012 in comparison to their 10.3% growth rate published in the previous forecast.

Total advertising is forecast to grow by 3.4% next year and 3.9% in 2014.

Latest UK Advertising Growth Forecasts

2011 2012f 2013f
Carat (08/12) 2.10% 2.80% 2.80%
GroupM (07/12) 3.30% 3.40% 3.20%
Advertising Association (07/12) N/A 2.50% 4.40%
ZenithOptimedia (09/12) 2.40% 2.20% 3.40%
Strategy Analytics N/A 4.20% N/A
Average 2.60% 3.30% 3.70%
As above/compiled by MediaTel
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