Government Switch-Off Target Cannot Be Met, Says Informa Media Group
According to a new report, New Media Markets’ UK Digital Television, published by Informa Media Group, digital TV penetration will reach only 64% by 2010. This is some way off the Government’s target for analogue switch off. Informa forecasts that Sky Digital will account for over half of all digital TV households by 2010, cable will account for just under 40% leaving only a small share of the market for digital terrestrial (DTT).
| UK Digital TV Forecasts | ||||
| 2002 | 2003 | 2005 | 2010 | |
| TV Households (000) | 24,465 | 24,588 | 24,834 | 25,461 |
| Digital-Terrestrial Homes (000) | 1,000 | 1,100 | 1,300 | 1,800 |
| Digital Terrestrial/TV Households (%) | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| Cable | ||||
| Cable Subscribers (000) | 3,745 | 3,894 | 4,273 | 5,454 |
| Digital Cable Subscribers (000) | 1,983 | 2,621 | 4,059 | 5,454 |
| Digital Subs/TV Households (%) | 11 | 13 | 16 | 21 |
| Cable Subscription Revenues (£ million) | 854 | 926 | 1,086 | 1,554 |
| Sky Digital | ||||
| Digital Satellite Subscribers (000) | 6,300 | 6,750 | 7,250 | 7,842 |
| Dish/TV Households (%) | 26 | 27 | 29 | 31 |
| Digital Satellite Subscription Revenues (£ million) | 2,114 | 2,342 | 2,670 | 3,217 |
| DSL Entertainment | ||||
| Subscribers (000) | 51 | 98 | 308 | 1,141 |
| DSL Ent/TV Households (%) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| DSL Ent Revenues (£ million) | 1 | 26 | 89 | 423 |
| Digital Personal Video Recorders | ||||
| In DTT homes (000) | 0 | 6 | 65 | 630 |
| In digital cable homes (000) | 5 | 31 | 406 | 3,272 |
| In digital satellite homes (000) | 63 | 338 | 1,088 | 3,137 |
| In DSL entertainment homes (000) | 0 | 1 | 31 | 684 |
| Total (000) | 68 | 375 | 1,589 | 7,723 |
| PVR Homes/TV households (%) | 0 | 2 | 6 | 30 |
| Source: Informa Media Group | ||||
| Note: All figures refer to year-end. | ||||
The Informa report “assumes that there is no viable model for subscription digital-terrestrial television” though forecasts that 7% of all TV households will take free-to-air DTT signals by 2010. ITV Digital, it assumes, will not attempt to recall set top boxes from its ex-subscribers allowing these homes to continue watching free-to-air channels. Pace has also introduced a low-cost set top box onto the market for this purpose (see Pace To Speed Digital Take-Up).
The demise of ITV Digital aside, Informa points out that the cable operators have achieved “impressive results” in converting their subscribers to digital. All cable subscribers expected to receive digital signals by 2006, however, financial constraints will prevent cable operators from marketing to new subscribers. Only 21% of UK TV households will subscribe to cable by 2010, says Informa, creating subscription revenues of £1.6 billion.
Growth of Sky Digital is expected to slow in coming years but 7.8 million homes will receive DTH digital services by 2010. By this time, these homes are forecast to produce annual revenues of £3.2 billion.
Personal Video Recorders (PVRs) are not expected to take off ‘in a big way’ for some time as the equipment and technology is still in its nascency and therefore expensive. Once network storage facilities are introduced by cable and DSL operators, around 2007, PVR take up will increase.