Report forecasts UK ad market’s return to growth

A new report from GroupM, WPP’s investment wing, has forecast -13% decline for the UK ad market in 2020, followed by 13% growth next year.

The impact of Covid-19 sharply halts seven years of mid- to high-single digit growth, and is worse than the 2009 financial crash, which produced a 12% decline.

Despite the current disarray, GroupM said it still expects the UK ad market to stabilise after an initial freefall that began in late March when the lockdown first began.

While some spending is lost for the rest of the year, and forever in some cases, the portion that was deferred is returning, the report states.

As a result, some sectors are now increasing spending to take advantage of market opportunities, while others are “prepared to invest through the chaos” as they see an opportunity to build disproportionate share of voice and long-term brand equity.

GroupM also estimates that e-commerce-related advertising will expand by 45% this year and another 66% next year on the way toward £2.2 billion in advertising revenue for media owners by 2024.

Other top-line findings include:

– Digital advertising is expected to decline by only 8% during 2020, with an expected rebound next year of 11% growth.

– Television advertising is expected to decline by 15% in 2020, followed by 13% growth next year.

– OOH advertising is set to suffer more than most media during 2020, with a 35% decline expected this year and a 23% rate of growth expected for next year.

– Audio media is expected to fall by 16% this year and then grow by 14% next year, while remaining the most cost-efficient channel.

– After experiencing a revenue decline of around 6% during 2019, print media (including digital) is expected to decline 24% in 2020 and make an 18% gain in 2021.