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Better than your average pundit

06 Jan 2020  |  David Pidgeon 
Better than your average pundit

As our chum Richard Shotton pointed out several years ago, business predictions tend to be rather shonky.

Indeed, an analysis of almost 83,000 forecasts from 284 experts covering a 20 year period found that the predictions were just as likely to be wrong as right.

It means the average pundit is, at best, no better than "a dart-throwing monkey".

That's why we've tried over the years to resist end of year forecasts and instead speak with experts to hear what sorts of strategies they think will ensure the best possible outcome to a challenge or opportunity.

That's the behaviours to adopt, the questions to ask and the context in which to frame business decisions.

In this article (split into two parts) we've covered as much of the media and advertising sectors as possible - from TV to online, and workplace culture to media research, and hey, the esteemed professor Mark Ritson read it and said it was "good".

And, despite some people finding it next to impossible not to throw in the odd forecast amongst the strategies, thus far no one has actually been accused of being a randomised chimp.

To end what has often been a chaotic year, we have also published a review covering some of the biggest business and political stories to impact the media industry by Raymond Snoddy – an excellent way to start thinking about 2020. As is Bob Wootton's compendium of advertising loose ends.

And for those who really do want to peer into a crystal ball, we've ensured it's as cerebral as possible and based on patterns of change throughout history.

To that end, here is Tracey Follows on why our increasingly connected world is set - with the most educated of guesses - to surprise in profound new ways.

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